Repent! The end of WFH is nigh!

Will economic downturn mean the end of hybrid and remote working?

It seems that there is still a war on. While some businesses wholeheartedly embraced remote/hybrid work, many organisations want their people back in the office. However, many employees want to work from home as much as they can.

Until recently, in many fields (especially marketing specialisms), it’s been a candidate’s market. With skills shortages and the ability to apply for remote jobs nationally, employers have had to compromise to attract talent. And the one thing employees want is to not feel like they’re at (a traditional place of) work. They want to work from wherever, whenever. 

Any why not? As long as you do your hours… 

“According to a January 2023 US survey, while half of employers believe giving employees flexible schedules has worked well, a third who planned to adopt a virtual or hybrid model have changed their minds from a year ago.” BBC News.

So why do business leaders want people back in the office?

Well, there’ll be something, some piece of data, some insight that’s driving the decision… Right?

While there’s tons of data about how much employees value WFH and how it helps productivity, retention, and mental health, I couldn’t find much that suggests there are benefits to getting people back in the office. One included the noncommittal: “In the end, I think it always helps to have some physical space you can go to," or at least having the option to do so, believes Gonzalez-Mulé.

I did however find quotes from business leaders saying that they didn’t like it. They miss the camaraderie and collaboration of in-person interactions. One CEO of a Fortune 500 company said that WFH lacks the “innovative, collaborative apprenticeship culture” we want, and are enforcing office-working.

So that’s it. We’re all back in the office because the bosses just prefer it.

In fairness, as Einstein said: not everything that is important is measurable. Statistically significant studies certainly reveal that employees prefer it, but reports of increased productivity are often anecdotal. That said, there is robust data in more factory-like roles where productivity has been easier to quantify. 

So, what may be important and powerful that aren’t measurable? What intuitive things do bosses see and feel that are driving this decision?

Communication Challenges

• Remote working empowered employees, but bosses didn’t like employees used that power to do: less participation in meetings, harder to reach on comms (delayed comms).

• Reduced spontaneous collaboration: The casual interactions that happen in an office setting can often lead to innovative ideas, and some leaders feel this is lost in a remote setting.

• Miscommunication risks: Written digital communication can sometimes lack the nuance of face-to-face interaction, leading to misunderstandings.

• Presenteeism, including people who attend meetings but aren’t really paying attention - doing other tasks.

Productivity Concerns

• Difficulty in monitoring performance: Some managers find it challenging to oversee employee tasks and productivity without direct, in-person supervision. People hate working. It’s rubbish. It’s why holidays are brilliant and we hate Mondays. So, in an attempt to make working more enjoyable, they’ve just created a situation in which those who hate work are without scrutiny or oversight, able to exploit the system to do as little as possible. OBVIOUSLY! Has no one read Das Kapital?!

• Distractions at home: children, dogs, parents, cats, bad internet, chores, deliveries, husbands, wives, lovers, flatmates, TV.

• Inequitable work environments: Not all employees have access to a home office setup, leading to inequality among team members.

Team and Company Culture

• Reduced team cohesion: Team-building is often seen as easier and more effective in a shared physical space.

• Loss of company culture: Maintaining a consistent company culture is often considered more difficult with a dispersed team. Also, why is retention so desirable when you’re retaining people who contribute so little to the wider organization?

• Lack of mentorship and training: It can be more challenging to train and mentor employees in a virtual environment.

• Zoom calls encourage and facilitate bad behaviour and presentation on meetings: eating, smoking, vaping, inappropiate clothing.

Strategic Concerns

• Focus and immediate decision-making: Some leaders feel that complex problem-solving and rapid decision-making are more effective in person.

• Customer perception: Some clients or stakeholders may see a fully remote company as less legitimate or committed.

• Reduced control over brand image: With employees representing the company from various locations, there may be concerns about how the brand is presented.

• Public perception: Companies might opt for in-office work to present an image of stability and reliability during uncertain times, both to current employees and potential investors.

And, importantly…

Personal Preferences

• Managerial style: Some managers simply prefer the immediacy and control of a traditional office setting.

• Lack of adaptability: Resistance to change can also be a factor, especially for leaders who have always worked in an in-person environment.

• Trust issues: A lack of trust in employee discipline and accountability can also make leaders hesitant to endorse remote work.
  

So what now?

A friend once said to me: people work in the interests of their jobs, not their companies. It really resonated and since, I’ve seen this a lot. In line with this, even if the stats say WFH is better for business, people will do what make their job easier or better or more successful.

Those business leaders may not have known how good they had it until COVID and we all went home for two years.

And the remote-workers welcomed the utopia they’d always wanted.

But now, that utopia is under threat.

For two years, workers have had the upper hand and been able to demand WFH due to their power in the labour market.

But the coming economic downturn will shift that power back to businesses and business owners will not miss this opportunity to rebuild their workplaces as buzzing, thrumming homes of ideas, collaboration and productivity - places where the young are nurtured and friendships (even marriages) develop; places where great ideas come from insignificant, accidental moments and strangers feel a sense of allegiance to the abstract entity of the company; places where communication is quick and easy and without risk of ambiguity, misunderstanding or conflict, places where people can quickly and effectively come together to solve problems and celebrate doing that together.

And it’s already started.

“Tech firms have begun to slowly get tougher on enforcing mandates to try and increase office days”, explains Nicholas Bloom, professor of economics at Stanford University. “Layoffs will have definitely accelerate this: employees worrying about layoffs are now much more likely to come to the office on days they’re supposed to be in.”

How will it happen?

You’re in your job, your contract says you’re remote/hybrid. You’re safe, right?

If you get laid off in the next few years, any new role is more likely to be office-based.

If you don’t get laid off, your employer might attempt to change your contract. And if this doesn’t happen, they may put everyone into consultancy and re-apply for their jobs (only now they’re office-based).

Only the most sought-after skills sets will be able to dictate terms.